July 2, 2009

Commodity News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Paul Nowak – 2:44 pm

U.S. Stocks, Commodities Retreat After Unemployment Data - Bloomberg

467K Jobs Cut in June - Yahoo Finance

Soybeans FAll on Signs of Declining Demand - Bloomberg

Crude Oil Falls Below $67, May Head Lower - MSN Money

Coffee Drops to Two-Month Low - Bloomberg

Euro Zone Unemployment Hits 10-year High - RealClearMarkets

FDIC: New Private Equity Rules - New York Times

Government Gives Feddie Mac $6B More - RealClearMarkets

The Housing Data Really Is Encouraging - Free Exchange

Inflation or Hyperinflation? - Merk Investments

U.S. Investor Optimism Tumbles in June - Gallup

Why Oil Traders Should Care About Wheat - (in)efficient Frontiers

Rationale for Pre-Holiday Payroll Release

Category: Broker Commentary, Market Updates, Trader Viewpoints – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 10:08 am

The worse-than-expected June employment report is dampening pre-holiday spirit  in stocks and commodities before the 4th of July holiday.  Lind Plus Senior Market Strategist Richard Ilczyszyn said when there is a holiday on a Friday, the Labor Department often delays the employment report release until the following week. But this time, the report was released a day early. He said there was likely a reason for that.

“I think it was part of the government’s strategy to have this release out before the holiday, so we could forget about it by Monday. If it were to come out next week, there’d be even more activity to the downside (in stocks),” he said.

In his morning notes, MF Global Research Senior Interest Rate and Equity Market Analyst Nick Kalivas said while the report was bearish stocks and bullish Treasuries, there was  “not much to really say” about it.  “The economy remains weak. I believe that hiring will remain depressed due to the socialist policies in Washington and lack of an economic driver,” he said.

Breakdown of the numbers

Non-Farm Payrolls fell 467,000.  (-367,000 expected). Net revision is +8K. All in May.
Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 9.5%. (9.6% expected)
Initial unemployment claims fell 13,000 to 514,000. (615,000 expected)
Continuing claims fell 36K to 6.702 mln. (6.740 mln expected)

1.     Construction jobs declined 79,000
2.     Manufactuirng decreased 136,000
3.     Retail declined 21,000
4.     Business services fell 188,000 with temporary help off 38,000
5.     Financial fell 27,000
6.     Government jobs declined 52,000
7.     Education and healthcare bucked the trend and rose 34,000

Household employment fell 374,000.
Labor force declined 155,000
Unemployment rose 218,000 – less than recent months
Hourly earnings were unchanged.
Hours worked fell 0.1 to 33.0.  Manufacturing rose 0.1 to 39.5 and OT was flat at 2.8

July 1, 2009

Commodity News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 3:47 pm

Manufacturing Index Up for 6th Straight Month - CNNMoney

Housing Rebound Continues, Barely - CNN Money

Commodities’ Engine Hits Cruising Speed - WSJ

Tankan Tips Tough Slog Ahead for Japan - WSJ

Gold Rallies Above $940, Dollar Drops on China News - Reuters

U.S. Interest Rates Seen Hinging on Fed’s Exit Strategy - Reuters

Food Inflation Seen Tempered as Plandings Rise - Reuters

As Oil Rises, Passive Investors Increase Their Holdings - MarketWatch

Dollar Slips Versus Euro as Equities Start Quarter in the Green - MarketWatch

Summer Retail Gasoline Prices Have Peaked, AAA Says - Bloomberg

U.S. Diesel Supply Climbs as Goods Orders Slip - Bloomberg

Copper Extends First-Half Gain as Chinese Manufacturing Expands - Bloomberg

Economist: Corn Acreage Jumps, Increase in Stocks Expected - AgWeb

Exuberance in Commodities: How Long Will it Last? - Seeking Alpha

July 4th Holiday Trading Schedule

Category: Educational, Market Updates – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 11:07 am

Independence Day Holiday Trading Schedule

What follows is a consolidated schedule for trading on some of the most popular North American futures markets for the U.S. Independence Day 2009 holiday. All times are CST (Chicago time).

Thursday, July 2, 2009

CME/CBOT Floor Trading

All products will have normal trading hours.

CME/CBOT Electronic Globex Trading

FX and interest rate products (CME and CBOT) will close at 4:00 p.m. CST.

Equity index products will close at 3:15 p.m.

CST commodities, GSCI, DJ AIG, ER, weather, CBOT ethanol, TRAKRS, Eurozone HICP, real estate, ETF, forestry, and CBOT grain products will have normal trading hours.

NYMEX/COMEX Floor Trading

All products will have normal trading hours.

NYMEX/COMEX Electronic Globex Trading

NYMEX/COMEX products on Globex are unaffected and will run on a normal schedule.

ICE Futures U.S. Floor Trading

Open-outcry products observe regular trading hours.

ICE Futures U.S. Electronic Trading

Currency pairs, U.S. Dollar Index, Russell Index and NYSE Composite close at 3:15 p.m.

Friday, July 3, 2009

CME Group Floor Trading

The exchange trading floor and normal operations will be closed on Friday, July 3, 2009, in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

CME Electronic Globex Trading

Electronic trading will stop for equity products at 10:30 a.m.

Trading will halt for foreign exchange, interest rate, housing products at 12:00 p.m.

The trade date for this session will be Monday, July 6, 2009.

NYMEX/COMEX on Globex

NYMEX/COMEX products on Globex will stop trading at 12:30 p.m. CST.

The trade date for this session will be Monday, July 6, 2009

ICE Futures U.S. Floor Trading

Open-outcry trading closed.

ICE Futures U.S. Electronic Trading

Currency pairs, U.S. Dollar Index close at 12:00 p.m. noon

Russell Index and NYSE Composite close at 10:30 a.m.

Agricultural products are closed.

This schedule is taken from sources that Lind-Waldock believes are accurate and are subject to change. The schedule has been assembled for information purposes only, and Lind-Waldock is not responsible for any errors or omissions. To confirm any part of the schedule, consult the Web site of the appropriate exchange: www.cmegroup.com; www.theice.com

June 30, 2009

Commodity News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 4:03 pm

Gloomy U.S. Consumers Clip Housing Recovery Hopes - Reuters

Can the Fed Raise Rates Earlier Than Expected? - Reuters

CFTC Looking for Excessive Speculation - Reuters

Top Commodity Indexes up 15 pct in Second Quarter - Reuters/Forbes

Did Homeowners Cause the Great Recession? - Forbes

Treasurys Fall as Economic Data Brightens - MarketWatch

Crude Below $70 After Consumer Confidence, Home Prices - MarketWatch

U.S. Corn Acreage Climbs as Dry Weather Spurs Seeding - Bloomberg

Steel Prices in U.S. Fall 11th Month, Purchasing Says - Bloomberg

Gold, Silver Fall as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investment Demand - Bloomberg

Oil Futures: Crude Slips Below $70/Bbl; Consumer Index Weighs - WSJ

A Break for Breakfast? Grain Prices Dive as Supplies Rise - LA Times

Corn Report: 2nd Largest Acreage, Biotechnology, Warm Weather - Cattlenetwork

ICE Cotton Review: Acreage Data Seen as Bullish - FutureSource

Gas Prices Hold Steady as July 4 Nears - CNN Money

Hyundai’s Latest Offer: Cheap Gas - CNN Money

Top Five Trading Mistakes

Category: Broker Commentary, Educational – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 10:24 am

Top Five Trading Mistakes

by Ben Kim

 

Over the years I have seen some repeated mistakes new traders make, and most are relatively easy to avoid if you are disciplined. Before I get into my list of the top five trading mistakes, I’ll mention one more that applies to trading as we move closer to the 4th of July holiday and the summer doldrums. In holiday markets, volume tends to be quiet at times, and that means markets can whipsaw, especially overnight. One large order can move a market significantly. We often see a lot of “noise” going on as we head into a holiday that might not be a true reflection of market fundamentals. It’s a time that’s harder to trade, and might not be the best time to initiate new positions if you aren’t an experienced trader. But if you do want to trade, avoiding the pitfalls is even more important. (more…)

June 29, 2009

Commodity News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 4:15 pm

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators - Bloomberg

VIX Drops to Lowest Level Since Lehman’s Collapse as Fear Ebbs - Bloomberg

Sugar Rises to Three-Year High; India Output May Trail Forecast - Bloomberg

Oil Rises Over 3 Percent on Nigeria Attacks - Reuters

Gold Ends Tad Down but Dollar in Focus - Reuters

CME Livestock Review: Cattle Complex Surges, Hogs Vary - Cattlenetwork

Corn: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States - Cattlenetwork

U.S. Gas: Futures Slip on Moderating Weather Forecasts - Cattlenetwork

The Science of Economic Bubbles and Busts - Scientific American

Will Crop Tally Clobber Corn? - Barron’s

Dow 10,000…Then Deflation? - MarketWatch

China Says Metal Stockpiling Over: Report - MarketWatch

U.S. Stock Market Braces for Quarterly Results - MarketWatch

China Will Drive Commodities Super-Cycle: Scotiabank - Financial Post

June 26, 2009

Commodity News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Paul Nowak – 1:13 pm

China Call for World Currency - Bloomberg

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises - Bloomberg

Deflation Fears Ignite in Japan - RealClearMarkets

Text of FOMC Statement - RealClearMarkets

How Much Power for Fed? - CNBC

Inflation is the Real Threat to Sustained Recovery - Alan Greenspan, FT

Why Congress Asks Bernanke Bogus Questions - Flow Chart

6 Reasons Why NatGas is Better Investment than Oil - ContrarianEdge

Personal Savings Rate to Rise - Cumberland Advisors

Oil Markets Stay Calm Despite Unrest in Iran - Washington Post

Listen to Our New Podcasts for Traders

Category: Educational – Paul Nowak – 1:06 pm

Education Podcast - Futures Trading for Investors

play-podcast Listen to the Most Recent Episode!

The Business of Day Trading

play-podcast Listen to the Most Recent Episode!

Friedman’s Futures Forecast - Strictly Technical Hotline

play-podcast Listen to the Most Recent Episode

Weekly Review of Commodity Markets

play-podcast Listen to the Most Recent Episode!

June 25, 2009

Commodity News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Paul Nowak – 4:48 pm

U.S. Stocks in Broad Rally - Wall Street Journal

New Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly to 627k - RealClearMarkets

Durable Goods Much Better Than Expected - Wachovia

Gold Rises for Third Day - Bloomberg

Wheat Falls to Eight-Week Low - Bloomberg

U.S. Crisis is Like Japan’s, Only 7 Times Faster - Newsweek

Regulatory Reform: A Primer - Forbes

The Fed Offers No Hints on an Exit Strategy - Barron’s

Let Bernanke Finish What He Started - MarketWatch

Beijing: The Dollar’s New Best Friend - Weekly Standard

Is Inflation Our Next Big Worry? - MSN Money

The U.S. Can Handle $80 Oil - Clusterstock

The Truth About Inflation and Jobs - Delta Global Advisors