Coping With New Commodity Trends
By Phil Streible
I’ve had a lot of clients wondering how to cope with the dramatic shifts we’ve seen in many commodity markets. We are seeing more and more headlines of economic malaise spreading overseas, and commodity prices are falling amid a worldwide slowdown.
Crude oil has fallen below $108 a barrel, down about 26 percent from its all-time high in July just over $147. Gold is down about 20 percent from its all-time high above $1,000 an ounce in March, falling under $800 in recent days. I do think the commodity bull market will continue in the year ahead, but a lot will depend on the actions of the Federal Reserve and European Central BankFor now, I’m expecting commodities to struggle, and recommend a bullish dollar trading strategy. (Read rest of Phil’s article)
Hurricane Gustov did less damage than feared to the U.S. Gulf Coast and oil refining areas, sending crude oil down below $109 a barrel. The stock market liked the news, with major market averages up in early trading. September S&P futures were last up 11.50 at 1294.50.
“It looks like a bullish day,” said Jeff Friedman, Senior Market Strategist at Lind Plus. He noted technical momentum indicators, Stochastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have turned bullish for the S&P futures, signaling higher prices. However, he warns the economy is still shaky, and gains may not be sustained. He put resistance at 1306, where day-traders might consider selling. The market is above the 20-day moving average at 1282 after a sleepy inside session Friday, but Friedman said he’d like to see a close above 1314 to get him on board the bull train with more conviction.
For more long-term market insights and trading strategies, join Jeff for his monthly “Friedman’s Futures Forecast” webinar live on Wednesday, September 3 at 3:30 p.m. CT. It’s free to attend, and you can ask Jeff any questions you have in a live interactive chat. Sign up.
What follows is a consolidated schedule for trading on some of the most popular North American futures markets for the Labor Day 2008 holiday, including early closes on Friday, August 29. All times are CST (Chicago time). The schedule is taken from sources that Lind-Waldock believes are accurate and are subject to change. The schedule has been assembled for information purposes only, and Lind-Waldock is not responsible for any errors or omissions. To confirm any part of the schedule, please check the Web site of the appropriate exchange. (more…)
S&P futures were down in early trade a worse-than-expected corporate earnings report from Dell, an uptick in oil prices, and a report showing personal spending in July dropped from June’s pace. The Commerce Department reported a 0.2 percent rise in consumer spending, slower than the 0.6 percent increase in June. Personal income fell 0.7 percent at a seasonally adjusted rate, compared to the month before. The S&P looks to be on track for a mildly positive performance for the month of August, after a bearish June and July.
Lind Plus Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman said the theme of the day is “holiday markets with thin and choppy trading,” as participants clear out before the Labor Day holiday Monday. He said while not much can be made of today’s action, the September S&P futures look slightly positive on an intermediate basis, moving above the prior reactionary high at 1294 Thursday. Momentum indicators, the Stochastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have turned from bearish to neutral, and may be signaling better prices ahead, he said. Friedman said a close above 1306 would put the bulls in command, with resistance seen near the month’s high at 1313 on a move up. A slide back under 1291, and possibly a close under 1261, would put the bears back in command. S&P futures were last down 5.50 at 1292.50.
August 28, 2008
August 27, 2008
