Category: Market Updates – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 9:45 am
What follows is a consolidated schedule for trading on some of the most popular North American futures markets for the Labor Day 2008 holiday, including early closes on Friday, August 29. All times are CST (Chicago time). The schedule is taken from sources that Lind-Waldock believes are accurate and are subject to change. The schedule has been assembled for information purposes only, and Lind-Waldock is not responsible for any errors or omissions. To confirm any part of the schedule, please check the Web site of the appropriate exchange. (more…)
S&P futures were down in early trade a worse-than-expected corporate earnings report from Dell, an uptick in oil prices, and a report showing personal spending in July dropped from June’s pace. The Commerce Department reported a 0.2 percent rise in consumer spending, slower than the 0.6 percent increase in June. Personal income fell 0.7 percent at a seasonally adjusted rate, compared to the month before. The S&P looks to be on track for a mildly positive performance for the month of August, after a bearish June and July.
Lind Plus Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman said the theme of the day is “holiday markets with thin and choppy trading,” as participants clear out before the Labor Day holiday Monday. He said while not much can be made of today’s action, the September S&P futures look slightly positive on an intermediate basis, moving above the prior reactionary high at 1294 Thursday. Momentum indicators, the Stochastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have turned from bearish to neutral, and may be signaling better prices ahead, he said. Friedman said a close above 1306 would put the bulls in command, with resistance seen near the month’s high at 1313 on a move up. A slide back under 1291, and possibly a close under 1261, would put the bears back in command. S&P futures were last down 5.50 at 1292.50.
The latest fundamental reports are indicating the U.S. economy is getting perhaps little stronger, giving a boost to stock index futures in early trade. The Commerce Department reported U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.3 percent in July, higher than analysts had expected. September S&P futures were last trading at 1271.50.
Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman said traders should be on the lookout for possible failed rally attempts today, as September S&P futures still look a bit bearish technically. The contract is below the 10-day moving average at 1281, and momentum indicators, the Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI), are signaling sideways to lower prices, he said. On a move down, 1247 is his target for swing traders, while resistance comes in at 1294, last Friday’s high.
“I’m bearish but not overwhelmingly so,” said Friedman. “I don’t expect big short positions heading into the holiday.” Month-end “window dressing,” or even the perception of such, could give the market a lift, he said. Window dressing refers to a practice among fund managers to enhance the appearance of their portfolios before month-end or quarterly statements are made public. It typically involves selling poor- performing stocks, then buying stronger ones to have on the books at the end of the month.
The S&P 500 is hovering near flat for the month of August after two months of declines, and may be able to pull out a performance on the plus side if that month-end bounce comes. The S&P 500 is still down in the double-digits for the year.
The U.S. dollar’s rally, which started in mid-July and has continued through August, has led many commodities lower in the past few weeks. However, there is one unique commodity that hasn’t fallen with the rest, and that commodity is sugar. Read mor or watch the video below.
Corn futures are ticking higher this morning, as a late start to planting and dry August weather could be setting up for a fall bounce. From a technical point of view, the chart pattern looks set up for a move above the 50-day moving average, which should put December corn futures at $6.53 a bushel. I see a possible bounce to $7.
Professional Farmers of America (Pro Farmer), a web site and advisory service which a lot of grain analysts pay attention to, pegged the 2008 U.S. corn crop at 12.152 billion bushels, and cut their yield-to-acre estimate to 153.3 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA’s last forecast of 155. It looks like the crop is a bit immature given spring flooding that delayed planting, and Pro Farmer estimates an early frost could lower the yield-per-acre to 147. There was news of frost already hitting the upper Midwest, although not in key growing regions. But dry weather is in the forecast, adding to the bullish tone. Read full article with Phil’s corn trading strategy.
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