August 29, 2008

Daily News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 2:19 pm

U.S. Economy: Spending Slows, Inflation Accelerates - Bloomberg

Coffee Rises on Concern Storm to Damage Supplies in New Orleans - Bloomberg

Wheat Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since March on Bigger Crops - Bloomberg

September: The Horror Story. Does it Deserve its Reputation of Being Bad for Stocks? - MarketWatch

Gold Ends Slightly Lower…Biggest Monthly Loss in 25 Years - MarketWatch

Japan’s Core Inflation Hits Decade-High of 2.4% - MarketWatch

Dollar to Close August with Best Month in a Decade - Reuters

CFTC Gives Congress Ammo to Act on Speculation - Reuters

It May be Too Soon to Exit Oil/Dollar Bet - Reuters

Fears of Isolation as Investors Flee Russia - AP/Yahoo Finance

Labor Day Holiday Trading Schedule

Category: Market Updates – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 9:45 am

What follows is a consolidated schedule for trading on some of the most popular North American futures markets for the Labor Day 2008 holiday, including early closes on Friday, August 29. All times are CST (Chicago time). The schedule is taken from sources that Lind-Waldock believes are accurate and are subject to change. The schedule has been assembled for information purposes only, and Lind-Waldock is not responsible for any errors or omissions. To confirm any part of the schedule, please check the Web site of the appropriate exchange. (more…)

Theme of the Day: Thin and Choppy Markets

Category: Broker Commentary, Market Updates – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 9:33 am

S&P futures were down in early trade a worse-than-expected corporate earnings report from Dell, an uptick in oil prices, and a report showing personal spending in July dropped from June’s pace. The Commerce Department reported a 0.2 percent rise in consumer spending, slower than the 0.6 percent increase in June. Personal income fell 0.7 percent at a seasonally adjusted rate, compared to the month before. The S&P looks to be on track for a mildly positive performance for the month of August, after a bearish June and July.

Lind Plus Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman said the theme of the day is “holiday markets with thin and choppy trading,” as participants clear out before the Labor Day holiday Monday. He said while not much can be made of today’s action, the September S&P futures look slightly positive on an intermediate basis, moving above the prior reactionary high at 1294 Thursday. Momentum indicators, the Stochastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have turned from bearish to neutral, and may be signaling better prices ahead, he said.  Friedman said a close above 1306 would put the bulls in command, with resistance seen near the month’s high at 1313 on a move up. A slide back under 1291, and possibly a close under 1261, would put the bears back in command.  S&P futures were last down  5.50 at 1292.50.

August 28, 2008

Daily News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 4:06 pm

Best Farm Economy Since 1970s Comes With Expense Risks - Bloomberg

European Retail Sales Fall for Third Month - Bloomberg

Bernanke, Aiming to Curb Market Risks, Met NYSE, CME Chiefs - Bloomberg

Fed May be Pressed for More Liquidity Steps - Reuters

U.S. Economy Shows Vigor in Q2, But May be Flagging - Reuters

Freezer Prices Climb as Food Prices Soar - AP/Yahoo Finance

Negative Real Interest Rates May Frighten Fed - MarketWatch

Gold Ends Slightly Higher on Safe-Haven Buying - MarketWatch

As Food Prices Soar, Brazil and Argentina React in Opposite Ways - NYTimes

Ups and Downs of Stock Market to be Expected - Chicago Tribune

August 27, 2008

Daily News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Paul Nowak – 9:21 am

Oil Rises Above $117 as Gustav Threatens Gulf - RealClearMarkets

Dollar on the Rise, For Now - Financial Times

Record Drop for Home Prices - RealClearMarkets

Credit Crunch Deeper and Wider - BusinessWeek

FDIC: 117 Troubled Banks - RealClearMarkets

Don’t Believe the Fed Hike Hype - TechTicker/Yahoo Finance

Durable Goods Post Strong Increases in June/July - AP/Yahoo Finance

Why Fannie & Freddie Will Survive - Wall Street Journal

Fannie, Freddie Mortgage Profit Rises with Debt Costs - Bloomberg

American Income Better Now Than 8 Years Ago - Investor’s Business Daily

Confusing Wealth and Income - Washington Times

If U.S. Sneezes, Will China Catch a Cold? - Times of London

Homeownership Isn’t For Everyone - Forbes

Responding to Energy Myths - New York Sun

Corn Falls for Fourth Day on Rainfall Forecasts - MarketWatch

Crude Rises on Storm Jitters, Drop in U.S. Supplies - MarketWatch

Month-End Window Dressing in S&P?

Category: Broker Commentary, Market Updates – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 9:14 am

The latest fundamental reports are indicating the U.S. economy is getting perhaps little stronger, giving a boost to stock index futures in early trade. The Commerce Department reported U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.3 percent in July, higher than analysts had expected. September S&P futures were last trading at 1271.50.

Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman said traders should be on the lookout for possible failed rally attempts today, as September S&P futures still look a bit bearish technically. The contract is below the 10-day moving average at 1281, and momentum indicators, the Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI), are signaling sideways to lower prices, he said. On a move down, 1247 is his target for swing traders, while resistance comes in at 1294, last Friday’s high.

“I’m bearish but not overwhelmingly so,” said Friedman. “I don’t expect big short positions heading into the holiday.” Month-end “window dressing,” or even the perception of such, could give the market a lift, he said. Window dressing refers to a practice among fund managers to enhance the appearance of their portfolios before month-end or quarterly statements are made public. It typically involves selling poor- performing stocks, then buying stronger ones to have on the books at the end of the month.

The S&P 500 is hovering near flat for the month of August after two months of declines, and may be able to pull out a performance on the plus side if that month-end bounce comes. The S&P 500 is still down in the double-digits for the year.

August 26, 2008

Why Sugar Isn’t Following Other Commodities

Category: Book Reviews, Webinars – Paul Nowak – 5:26 pm

By Frank D. Cholly

The U.S. dollar’s rally, which started in mid-July and has continued through August, has led many commodities lower in the past few weeks. However, there is one unique commodity that hasn’t fallen with the rest, and that commodity is sugar. Read mor or watch the video below.

Daily News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 3:40 pm

Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase - Bloomberg

Dollar Rises to Six-Month High on Bets Global Economy Slowing - Bloomberg

Consumer Confidence Bounces - Reuters

Fannie, Freddie Capital Can Absorb Losses: Report - Reuters

Corn Falls Into Third Day as Dollar Strengthens - MarketWatch

Housing Hasn’t Bottomed Yet, Don’t Bother Chilling the Champagne - MarketWatch

Oil Prices Rise as Hurricane Gustov Nears - AP/Yahoo Finance

FDIC: 117 Troubled Banks, Highest Since 2003 - AP/Yahoo Finance

August 25, 2008

Daily News Digest

Category: Commodity News Digest – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 3:46 pm

Will U.S. Follow Up Japan into a Decade of Stagnation - The Economist

Markets Stuck in a Vortex of Volatility - The New Yorker

It’s Deflation, Stupid - RealClearMarkets

Recessions are Good for the Economy - Telegraph

U.S. Treasuries Climb on Concern Credit-Market Turmoil Widening - Bloomberg

U.S. Economy: Home Resales Rose More than Forecast - Bloomberg

Gold Falls on Speculation Rally was Overdone - Bloomberg

Crop Tour Raises Some Questions, Answers Others - Reuters

Rising Dollar in Focus (video) - Reuters

Oil Rises, After Steep Slide - Reuters

Is Oil Headed for a Fall? - MarketWatch

Will Economy’s Path be Shaped Like a U, V, W, or L? - AP/Yahoo Finance

Gas Prices Down 10% From Record - CNNMoney

These Homes for Sale Stink - CNNMoney

Thirsty Corn Setting up For Bounce

Category: Broker Commentary, Market Updates – Kristina Zurla Landgraf – 9:46 am

Thirsty Corn Setting up For Bounce

By Phil Streible

Corn futures are ticking higher this morning, as a late start to planting and dry August weather could be setting up for a fall bounce. From a technical point of view, the chart pattern looks set up for a move above the 50-day moving average, which should put December corn futures at $6.53 a bushel. I see a possible bounce to $7.

Professional Farmers of America (Pro Farmer), a web site and advisory service which a lot of grain analysts pay attention to, pegged the 2008 U.S. corn crop at 12.152 billion bushels, and cut their yield-to-acre estimate to 153.3 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA’s last forecast of 155. It looks like the crop is a bit immature given spring flooding that delayed planting, and Pro Farmer estimates an early frost could lower the yield-per-acre to 147. There was news of frost already hitting the upper Midwest, although not in key growing regions. But dry weather is in the forecast, adding to the bullish tone. Read full article with Phil’s corn trading strategy.