A Bull in China, by Jim Rogers

By Susan Abbott Gidel • Aug 4th, 2008 • Category: Book Reviews

 

The friend of commodity traders, Jim Rogers, outlines why he believes China is next on an investor’s horizon in his latest book, “A Bull in China—Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.”

 

A Bull in China, by Jim RogersReleased in December 2007—three years after Rogers’ book, “Hot Commodities,”—this book perhaps is the result of homework that Rogers did before he moved his family to Asia that same year in order to be in position to take advantage of what he sees as the world’s next great economy. “…just as the nineteenth century belonged to England the twentieth century to America, so the twenty-first century will be China’s turn to set the agenda and rule the roost,” he writes.

 

Although largely focused on Chinese companies whose stock is listed in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, New York and London, the book doesn’t forget commodity traders. Indeed, Rogers still believes that “Commodities also happen to be a great way to profit from China’s expansion.” This book will give commodity traders an overview of the Chinese companies that are tied to raw materials, as well as some American companies already operating in China in critical commodity-oriented businesses.

 

As an example of its growth, Rogers reports that the Dalian Commodity Exchange trades more soybean futures contracts than at the Chicago Board of Trade. Although true (DCE traded 47.4 million soybean contracts in 2007 vs. 31.7 million at CBOT), he fails to point out that the CBOT contract, at 5,000 bu., is 13 times larger than its Chinese counterpart, at 10 metric tons (367 bu.).

 

Rogers first set foot in China in the mid-1980s on the first of his two round-the-world trips by motorcycle and car, chronicled in two other books, “Investment Biker,” and “Adventure Capitalist.” As many statistics about China’s growth since then indicate, it’s no wonder Rogers compares the stage of China’s economic development in 2008 to that of the United States in 1908, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was just 12 years old. Now, that’s a picture to keep in mind when considering the investment opportunities that may await, from “red chip” stocks to ADRs and penny stocks.

 

Still, investing in such an economy doesn’t come without risks, Rogers warns. The Chinese yuan, or renminbi, is not yet fully convertible, but Rogers expects pressure to float the currency eventually will lead it there. Indeed, he forecasts the yuan could rise 300%-500% against the U.S. dollar over the next 20 years. As for precipitating conflict, Rogers says: “China needs war like a hole in the head.” He believes China has enough internal strife that it does not seek to look outside its borders for trouble.

 

For a primer on China’s investment opportunities and climate, “A Bull in China,” is a great resource, written by someone who has seen its economic developments first-hand over the last two decades. It provides a broad overview along with brief insights into dozens of listed stocks that already are big names in the Chinese stock market—and often can be traded in New York or London.

 

As Rogers writes: “Whatever the risks, this much is clear: it’s more scary to have all your savings in the U.S. stock market than it is to put a portion in China…”

 

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