Friedman’s Futures Forecast: August

By Jeff Friedman

Last month, my big-picture themes for traders were to keep your eye on the U.S. dollar, and also China. These remain driving factors this month, too. But now, in early August, one major trend has changed: commodities are no longer going through the roof and are in midst of some notable corrections. Now everyone is wondering whether the commodity bull market has ended, and inflation is no longer a fear.

China has been a driving force in the global economy, and in demand for commodities. As China prepared for the summer Olympics, it was like the girl going to the prom. She had to get her dress, to look pretty. China had to spend money on infrastructure, food, and energy. Manufacturers had ramped up spending to produce and warehouse supplies ahead of the games. According to an Associated Press report, it was estimated the government was spending some $40 billion on Olympics venues and improvements to Beijing’s infrastructure. Read Full Article