Gold Bottom May Not be in Yet

By Kristina Zurla Landgraf • Aug 19th, 2008 • Category: Broker Commentary, Market Updates

Gold futures are seeing renewed weakness after Monday’s rally, which saw December NYMEX futures rise $13.60 to close at $805.70 an ounce. Last week, the yellow metal dropped more than 8 percent as the U.S. dollar gained ground and Goldman Sachs lowered its three-month forecast for gold to $745 from its prior forecast of $890.

Lind Plus Senior Market Strategist Richard Ilczyszyn agreed gold might not be near a bottom yet, even after hitting a 10-month low last week. “I don’t know if this market is done with the downside yet…the gates are still open for a sell on the daily charts. It’s been quite a move in the past 30 days. A lot of longs are still holding on by a thread, and I’d have to think the yearly lows will be hit,” he said.

Ilczyszyn said if the December futures contract trades under $787, there could be a quick move to $777, with stops hit along the way to $750 as the next downside target.

Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge and tends to attracts buyers when inflation rears up, but the market seemed to brush off this morning’s worrisome producer price data. The Labor Department reported U.S. producer prices rose 1.2 percent in July, and were up 9.8 percent on a year-over-year basis, the biggest increase in 27 years. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.7 in July and was up 3.5 percent from a year ago, a 17-year high.

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