Theme for Week in Stocks: Volatile but Thin
By Kristina Zurla Landgraf • Aug 25th, 2008 • Category: Broker Commentary, Market UpdatesLind Plus Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman dubbed the theme for this week as thin, but volatile heading into the Labor Day holiday. Friday, August 22, was a low-volume session for stock indexes as the final dog days of summer set in.
The equity markets pulled out a positive finish Friday, with September S&P futures closing up above the 10-day moving average at 1286, which Friedman said tempers the bearish outlook. From a technical point of view, he said momentum indicators, Stochastics and the relative strength index (RSI) have turned neutral, signaling sideways to higher prices possible in the near-term. He put the next major resistance for September S&P at 1306.
Friedman said a move under the reactionary low of 1246 (which he sees likely in the fourth quarter if not sooner) would put bears would be back in command. For day traders, he said the technical outlook today looks neutral to bearish, and traders should watch for a weaker session after a rally attempt. Near-term resistance was seen at 1295-1298. Friedman’s daily pivot for September S&P is 1289.77, but he advises to watch the opening range for directionary clues.
Traders would also be wise to watch crude oil and the dollar. The dollar rose to near a six-month high against the euro and crude oil backed down more than 5 percent on Friday, also supporting stocks. An uptick in crude oil this morning has caused a slight setback in stocks, as September S&P futures were last down 7 at 1285.25. Friedman’s pivot for the September Dollar Index futures contract is 76.71, with resistance at 77.20 and 77.47.
