Markets View Rate Cut a Done Deal

By Kristina Zurla Landgraf • Oct 29th, 2008 • Category: Broker Commentary, Market Updates

Financial markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of this afternoon’s conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A decision on interest rates is expected at 1:15 p.m. CT. Based upon the October 28 market close, CME Group’s 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate. Odds are 54 percent for a 0.50 percent cut, and 46 percent for a 0.75 percent cut. The Fed funds rate currently stands at 1.50 percent. See CME Group’s Fed Watch page for more details.

Lind Plus Senior Market Strategist Jeff Friedman said participants are factoring in lower rates, which helped drive what he dubbed a short-covering rally in stocks Tuesday.  However, he said technically, the bears still have the advantage amid a weakening economy. “There still are no significant technical clues we have a bottom,” Freidman said, adding that traders should watch for weekly high closes in futures as indications of a true turnaround.

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